After landing his 11/1 best bet treble last weekend, our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide his insight on every Premier League game.
West Ham vs Chelsea, Saturday 12.30pm
Don’t be fooled by Chelsea’s record of winning their last four Premier League away games, where they’ve scored 12 goals. This team are still miles away from being considered a top-four contender based on the underlying numbers behind those performances – especially the two wins this season at Wolves and Bournemouth.
The aggregate score may read 7-2 to Chelsea across those games but the expected goals numbers painted a picture of 2.51-3.74 – a huge overperformance and one that makes their price for an away win at Evens with Sky Bet look ripe for taking on.
West Ham have more than enough about them across their frontline to start punishing this Chelsea defence for the high-quality chances they are offering up. Home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Aston Villa vs Wolves, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £250,000!
After what we saw last weekend in the Premier League with the high card counts this fixture has the potential to follow suit. It’s a notoriously card-heavy game involving two clubs that don’t like one another much in what is a developing derby.
Across the last eight fixtures between the two, the per-game bookings points average comes in at a whopping 67 points.
That immediately makes the Evens on offer with Sky Bet for 60 or more bookings points (10 for a yellow, 25 for a red) a runner, especially when Villa have drawn 15 yellows in their last four matches across all competitions.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Fulham vs Newcastle, Saturday 3pm
Fulham have a wretched record against Newcastle, losing the last six meetings while having a player sent off in three of the last seven. They’ve also scored just twice in those seven previous clashes, blanking on five occasions.
I’d be surprised if they failed to score again, though, based on Newcastle’s defensive output this season.
Yes, Eddie Howe’s men are unbeaten having taken 10 points from a possible 12, but they’ve faced an average of 1.63 of expected goals against per 90 along with averaging 16.5 shots faced per 90. Only two teams have faced more shots – and the Toon have had a somewhat kind opening set of fixtures.
Coming out on top when the margins are fine in matches isn’t a sustainable way of picking up points so I’d expect some regression with their results before too long.
It could come here, where Fulham are a tempting 9/5 with Sky Bet for victory.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Leicester vs Everton, Saturday 3pm
Leicester remain a team I’m keen on opposing despite positive results against Tottenham and Crystal Palace.
They have lost the expected goals battle, shot count and corner race in all four of their Premier League games. Their underlying metrics have been dismal.
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Leicester manager Steve Cooper explains why his club have sought clarification over the VAR decision to allow a Crystal Palace goal last Saturday – a decision he describes as an ‘awful human error’.
If Everton can’t get a result here then Sean Dyche will have some huge questions to answer.
However, if his team attack like they’ve done in the last two matches, they should win this match – and look a bet with the odds on offer.
They’ve created seven big chances across their last two games to a healthy expected goals figure of 2.10. The dynamic of Iliman Ndiaye, Dwight McNeil and Dominic Calvert-Lewin looked quite exciting in forward areas against Bournemouth and Aston Villa.
They should prove too hot for Leicester to handle, with the away win at 8/5 with Sky Bet looking very generous.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Everton to beat Leicester (8/5 with Sky Bet – part of 9/1 weekend treble!)
Liverpool vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £250,000!
Andoni Iraola is going places as a manager but backing this Bournemouth team to beat a top-six side has become an expensive pastime.
They have now failed to win any of 12 Premier League games vs last season’s top-six – winning just two points from a possible 36. They will head to Anfield as lively outsiders and make life fiddly for Arne Slot’s men but they are impossible to fancy to get a result – even if the 8/1 for an away win sounds juicy.
Finding a way to get Liverpool onside is tricky at such prohibitive odds, but adding Dominik Szoboszlai to score into the mix is an interesting tactic at 9/2 with Sky Bet.
He netted his first goal of the season in midweek vs AC Milan and was genuinely outstanding with his all-around game in joining the front three. He’s had 10 shots in five games under Slot and I’m expecting his goal output to increase this season.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Southampton vs Ipswich, Saturday 3pm
If the Southampton that played the final 60 minutes against Manchester United turn up, making a case for them to win at 6/5 with Sky Bet is going to be a tough ask for those who still have faith in Russel Martin. This is a big one for him.
Hope could spring eternal for Saints in the form of Tyler Dibling, whose first-half performance against United was hugely eye-catching.
What got my punting juices flowing regarding his attacking output was the way he moved and drew fouls like Jack Grealish. He won four fouls in 63 minutes of action with his opposite number Diogo Dalot racking up a total foul count of four.
That is an exciting angle that we should be capable of exploiting in the fouls markets, with opposition left-back for Ipswich Leif Davis in focus here. He’s made at least one foul in his last seven starts for Ipswich and is 6/4 with Sky Bet to make two or more in this one.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Tottenham vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £250,000!
Brentford are exactly the type of opposition Ange Postecoglou doesn’t need right now.
If you were cooking up a recipe for a team to trouble Tottenham at the minute, Brentford have the perfect ingredients in that the home crowd will expect a win and the Bees are an excellent low-block defensive team who are a massive threat from set-pieces.
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Highlights of the Carabao Cup third round tie between Coventry City and Tottenham Hotspur.
Spurs have now conceded 13 goals from corners this calendar year and Brentford are incredibly creative and dangerous from such situations having created the second highest amount of expected goals (15.4) from set-pieces in the Premier League last season.
This has all the hallmarks of a nervy, frustrating kind of fixture for Spurs if they don’t score early and I’m very keen on taking on goals at the prices.
The market has this game producing 3.2 goals which looks high based on Tottenham’s problems creating quality chances of late. I’d happily swim against the goals tide with the under 3.5 line at 4/6 with Sky Bet looking good.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Under 3.5 goals (8/11 with Sky Bet – part of 9/1 weekend treble!)
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Speaking at the Kiyan Prince Foundation golf day, former Tottenham manager Harry Redknapp backs Ange Postecoglou to succeed at the club but admits he has put himself under pressure with his comments about winning trophies in his second season.
Crystal Palace vs Manchester United, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £250,000!
Who would you rather have in charge of your club: Oliver Glasner or Erik ten Hag?
If you said Oliver Glasner, congratulations.
It’s hard to get Crystal Palace’s 4-0 battering of United last season out of my thinking when assessing this game as Glasner’s football bewildered and perplexed United, who were admittedly without some big hitters.
Saturday 21st September 5:00pm
Kick off 5:30pm
Despite United delivering for us last week at Southampton, it’s hard to be too enthusiastic on their chances when priced up as 13/10 favourites with Sky Bet. The first half showing was – again – alarming.
Once they got the opening goal there was only going to be one winner but that’s more to do with how Southampton folded than Ten Hag’s team getting into a groove. The jury is still out on whether this team is moving forward and I’m happy to side with Glasner to showcase his tactical nous over his counterpart.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £250,000!
Brighton’s offside line under Fabian Hurzeler fascinates me. It’s a defence that has caught 31 players offsides in six games, resulting in a per game average of 5.1, with Wolves caught offside nine times in midweek.
It’s such a courageous, aggressive way to play but if opposition teams get the final pass right it does leave Brighton open to conceding high-quality chances on their goal.
This is why I’m happy to combine an offsides and a Forest goals play through the Build A Bet function on Sky Bet. You can get 6/4 with Sky Bet on both teams scoring and Forest being caught offside three or more times.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Manchester City vs Arsenal, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £250,000!
Arsenal’s price for the win to nil has been seducing me all week ever since I clapped eyes on it.
That 13/2 with Sky Bet is just too big to pass up.
This is a team that have won 10 of their 11 Premier League games away from home in 2024, conceding just three goals along the way. A team with such power, organisation and class who are rated with just a 22 per cent chance of victory to win a football match seems wrong – even against a juggernaut like Manchester City.
Sunday 22nd September 4:00pm
Kick off 4:30pm
A juggernaut, albeit, that is regressing, especially in defence as teams can expose them on the counter-attack. Brentford and Inter Milan have showed us this in recent days but it’s been happening for a while and was the reason why Real Madrid knocked them out of the Champions League last campaign.
Brentford countered with such ease last Saturday especially in the first half, when they could have been 3-0 up. City conceded five or more shots on target for just the second time in a home game under Pep Guardiola and Brentford even won the possession battle before the break.
And then Inter had 10 shots in the first half in midweek as they found it very easy to break through on the City backline via some clever passing and driving runs. They became the first opposing side to have 10 or more shots in the first half of a Champions League game at the Etihad since Monaco in February 2017.
Arsenal are ruthless enough at both ends of the pitch to take advantage and the Evens on offer for them to avoid defeat is the value call, as is the 13/2 win to nil price.
Statement victory, ahoy.
