Can Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton survive in the Premier League?

Newly-promoted duo Southampton and Leicester City go head-to-head this weekend in what could prove to be a crucial meeting in the race to avoid relegation.

Saints are one of four sides in the top flight yet to secure a league win, with Ipswich – the third promoted team – Crystal Palace and Wolves also searching for their first victory.

At the same time as this clash plays out at St Mary’s Stadium, 16th place Everton will travel to face Kieran McKenna’s side at Portman Road – another fixture all potential relegation candidates will be paying close attention to.

Leicester tasted victory in their last outing against Bournemouth but with all three promoted sides dwelling in the bottom six, it is fair to assume life after ascending into the Premier League has not been easy.

So, is the gulf in class between the rungs widening? The stats would suggest so…

What does the data say?

The chart below shows the average points per game from the top three teams in every Premier League campaign since 1995/96, when the league was trimmed to 20 teams and 38-game seasons.

The data reveals notable spikes in three of the past six years, while the current projection for this season’s top three would register a record of 2.48 points per game – if the sides maintain their current returns.

In contrast, relegated clubs amassed an all-time low 66 points last season – when Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United all suffered immediate returns to the Championship.

The chart below suggests relegated teams have increasingly struggled since 2017/18, while the current bottom three would average a record low of just 0.24 points per game if they maintain their current ratios.

Over the last three decades of Premier League football, the performance of relegated sides has declined at both ends of the pitch.

Meanwhile, the attacking output of top sides has improved, with the top three teams averaging 2.14 goals per game in the last 10 campaigns.

Of course, teams can recover from sluggish starts. In total, 79 Premier League sides have been winless after five games – 47 of these have survived.

Magic 40?

The table below shows the minimum number of points required (not factoring in goal difference) to stave off relegation since 1995/96 and reveals how fewer and fewer points have typically been required to secure survival in recent years.

The 40-point requirement was often necessary in the late ’90s and was needed most recently in 2011, but that number has dwindled to 35 or fewer in every campaign since 2015/16.

When translating those numbers into a rolling average, clubs have typically required just over 32 points over the past five years to survive – down six points from the five-year average at the turn of the millennium.

Does spending boost chances?

Unsurprisingly, spending certainly boosts survival chances. All three promoted clubs retained top-flight status come May in 2022/23: Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and Fulham.

Indeed, Forest registered a staggering £173.3m net spent across both windows in that season – more than any other promoted clubs.

It can go wrong. Fulham blew £100m net spend in 2018/19 to no avail. Conversely, Newcastle registered profit from transfer deals after winning promotion in 2010 but retained Premier League status at the end of 2010/11.

This summer, promoted clubs have spent more than ever before, with Ipswich, Southampton and Leicester investing a combined £314.5m in their squads.

Despite this significant outlay, Opta predicts all three sides will drop back down into the Championship.

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