Our football betting expert Jones Knows is back to provide more Premier League insight ahead of the weekend, starting with Friday Night Football.
Brighton vs Southampton, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
If you had backed all five home teams that went off odds-on last weekend in the Premier League with a one-point stake, you’d have lost 4.6 units. There are genuine signs that the league is becoming more competitive than we’ve seen in recent years. It’s exactly what we want to see.
With that in mind, Brighton are impossible to fancy strongly here at 2/5 with Sky Bet especially as they are overperforming defensively. Fabian Hurzeler’s side have the sixth-worst defensive output according to the expected goals metrics and can find themselves fortunate to be fifth in the table.
Friday 29th November 7:30pm
Kick off 8:00pm
Southampton are very flaky but have the tools in forward areas to take advantage, so throwing a couple of darts at their players in the anytime market makes sense with Tyler Dibling (11/2 with Sky Bet) and Mateus Fernandes (9/1) the clear standouts.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Brentford vs Leicester, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £250,000!
Brentford have been red hot at home, winning five of their last six games and are such a difficult and awkward team to play against. Leicester step into the unknown without Steve Cooper but it’s hard to see much improvement on the horizon in the short term.
Brentford’s form hasn’t gone unnoticed in the markets so we’re unable to latch onto a value price for a home win.
The 4/6 with Sky Bet is short enough. A shrewd way to invest in a pro-Brentford angle is to simply back Yoane Wissa to score anytime instead at 11/8. He’s netted seven times in his last five appearances at the Gtech as he’s the man tasked with getting on the end of the creative and hard-to-defend supply being fired into opposition boxes.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £250,000!
Newcastle’s games this season have seen just 26 goals scored combined – it’s the joint-fewest with Manchester United as Eddie Howe’s side are becoming a profitable under goals team to follow. The issues stem from their inability to be clinical with their finishing, scoring 13 goals from a haul of 18.3 expected goals with a shot conversation rate of just 8.3 per cent – the third worst in the Premier League.
And who has the worst conversation rate? Crystal Palace with just 5.9 per cent. It explains why they’ve only scored three goals at home this season.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from Aston Villa’s match against Crystal Palace in the Premier League
Under 2.5 goals at Evens with Sky Bet is going to go very close in a tight game.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Nottingham Forest vs Ipswich, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £250,000!
After taking a few games to work out their surroundings, Ipswich and their supremo manager are just starting to tick along nicely in the Premier League.
The introduction of Jens Cajuste into the midfield has worked a treat and they were the superior side against Manchester United, who had Andre Onana to thank for the point. A trip to Forest, who despite their impressive defensive record have won only three of their last 12 Premier League home games, won’t hold any fear for the Tractor Boys considering they went to Tottenham and left with maximum points.
I’m all over backing Kieran McKenna’s boys with a +1 handicap start (to avoid defeat) and combining that with the match to produce over 1.5 goals through the BuildABet function to get us to tasty 15/8 shot to back.
Premier League games are starting to show signs of a goal heavy nature again after a slow start. If you take Everton out of the equation, every game over the last two Gameweeks has seen two or more goals scored.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Ipswich +1 handicap & over 1.5 total match goals (15/8 with Sky Bet)
Wolves vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm
I’m struggling to see why Bournemouth are being chalked up as favourites here at 6/4 with Sky Bet.
Andoni Iraola’s team are a joy to watch but have just one away win from their last eight matches and have only scored more than once in two of their last 11 road games. Iffy results like losing 1-0 at Leicester and 2-1 at Luton last season certainly give the Cherries a very untrustworthy appeal when this short in the betting, plus their key man Antoine Semenyo is suspended.
Meanwhile, Wolves have started to deliver the results their performances have been threatening and since losing at Arsenal on the opening day, they have scored in their last 13 games in all competitions, including scoring two or more in each of their last four games.
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Highlights from the Premier League clash between Fulham and Wolves
They look a huge price here at Evens on the draw no bet, meaning we’ll get stakes refunded if the match ends a draw.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Wolves draw no bet (Evens with Sky Bet)
West Ham vs Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
With Liverpool and Manchester City locking horns this weekend, if, like me, you still think Arsenal are the best team in the Premier League then now is the time to back them at 100/30 with Sky Bet for the title before that price vanishes.
I’m still a believer that this is their time having gone close before and they possess the ruthless streak to put winning runs together built around one of the best defensive units ever seen in the Premier League. That defence can lead them to another win to nil victory here.
The 6/4 on offer is a nice boost on the Arsenal outright price on a team that have won to nil on the road on nine of their last 19 matches. I can see a typical Arsenal away performance built on being defensively focused, sapping the energy out of the game before striking when on top.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Chelsea vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
It is now just one clean sheet in Aston Villa’s last 17 Premier League games after Crystal Palace, led by Ismaila Sarr, managed to score twice at Villa Park. They have now conceded a whopping 31 goals in that period to a per game average of 1.82. Only Wolves and West Ham have conceded more goals in that time.
The problems facing Unai Emery are similar to the ones at Manchester City in terms of the high-quality of chances they are shipping in transition. Once teams are through the midfield press, it’s relatively easy to beat the centre-backs in one-for-one duels. Chelsea are packed full of players to do just that – including Nicolas Jackson, who is proving doubters like me wrong regarding his final actions in front of goal.
Chelsea’s Nicolas Jackson is 5/6 to score or assist
He has 17 goal involvements in his last 20 Premier League and is 5/6 with Sky Bet to score or assist against what is a very generous Villa defence.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Manchester United vs Everton, Sunday 2pm
Ruben Amorim already looks to have more grey hairs than when he arrived in Manchester.
A crouching Ruben Amorim watches his Man Utd side at Old Trafford
If he didn’t know the size of the task ahead of him, he does now after two disjointed performances that laid bare the huge problems within this United squad. He’s inherited a very passive midfield, creativity and energy is in short supply in the final third and Onana is having to make too many big saves.
Amorim has already seen his team ship 10 shots on target in two matches and although Everton have netted just once in their last four, they are creating chances, averaging five shots on target per game in that run. Iliman Ndiaye has fired two on target in that run and is without doubt Everton’s brightest spark, capable of high quality. He looks a temping proposition to have a shot on target at Evens with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Tottenham vs Fulham, Sunday 2pm
There is a pattern emerging for Tottenham after a midweek European fixture in that they have lost the next Premier League game. Brighton, Crystal Palace and Ipswich all took advantage of perhaps some heavy legs in the Spurs camp as Ange Postecoglou’s tubthumping football is hard to sustain twice a week.
And considering I’ve got Fulham as lively outsiders for a top-four finish this season – that went well against Wolves last weekend – I’ve got to play the visitors here at the prices. Fulham on the draw no bet market at 12/5 with Sky Bet looks one to seriously consider.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Liverpool vs Manchester City, Sunday 4pm, live on Sky Sports
This is an enormous opportunity for Liverpool. How Arne Slot’s gameplan copes with the expectation upon them to win this game will tell us plenty about their true title capabilities.
That expectation is shown in the betting markets where Man City are going off outsiders in a Premier League match for the first time in 287 Premier League games – a run stretching back to when they were beaten 2-1 by Chelsea in 2017.
It’s been a remarkable fall from grace and Slot’s team do have the direct attackers to seriously hurt City in transition if they rinse and repeat what Tottenham did last weekend. The outright prices look right to me though with, if pushed, the high-scoring draw my idea of a correct score play at the prices.
A better punting option comes with Josko Gvardiol, who is 13/2 with Sky Bet to record an assist in a game where City should be capable of creating big moments.
Sunday 1st December 3:30pm
Kick off 4:00pm
Gvardiol’s influence is becoming very key in the final third, not only from a goalscoring perspective where he’s a very tidy finisher but also from a chance creation point of view.
He created eight chances in the defeat to Tottenham – the most of any player in a single game across that Premier League weekend. The defender is very keen to join the attacks down the left and gets himself into dangerous areas. That is shown by the numbers showing he’s created 17 chances in his last six starts. An assist is coming.
