PL Predictions: Spurs to turn up heat on Moyes

Jones Knows sprinkles his betting insight and analysis across the midweek Premier League card and thinks Tottenham will maintain their top-four charge at West Ham.

Newcastle vs Everton, Tuesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

How about this for a quality Premier League starting XI: Pope, Trippier, Botman, Lascelles, Livramento, Joelinton, Tonali, Miley, Almiron, Gordon, Wilson.

Good, eh?

Well, they are all missing for Tuesday night. I’m not sure I’ve seen anything like that when an actual first XI are all unavailable.

But despite missing an entire first XI Newcastle are still odds-on to beat Everton at 5/6 with Sky Bet which says something for the current state the Toffees find themselves in. They are currently on a joint-club record run of 12 games without a win after the 2-1 defeat at Bournemouth.

In a season where Premier League remain producing goals at a rate never seen in this league with the per game average still trending at a record level of 3.24 goals per 90 minutes, Everton are swimming against that tide.

A relatively stout defence, added to misfiring strikers, have seen their total match goals average stand at 2.45 – it’s the lowest in the Premier League and the only team to average under that key 2.5 goals line.

No team have been involved in more under 2.5 goals games this season than Everton with 15 of their 29 going against the grain of goals and delivering two or fewer goals. Newcastle’s games are averaging with 4.33 total match goals across their last 15 matches, hence the high goal expectancy here – but Everton tend to drag the goal return down. I think the 5/4 with Sky Bet for under 2.5 goals could be a shrewd play.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Nottingham Forest vs Fulham, Tuesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Was sacking Steve Cooper really worth it? Not much has changed in terms of results under Nuno Espirito Santo, who is working at a points-per-game ratio of 0.92 whilst Cooper had similar figures of 0.82 this season.

This does look a winnable fixture for Forest but my betting instincts have taken me to the shots market where Tosin remains overpriced to register a shot at 10/11 with Sky Bet for Fulham.

He’s becoming a big threat from set plays for Marco Silva, whose team provide the centre-back plenty of opportunities to venture forward. He’s had at least one shot in 10 of his last 11 starts, registering a total of 15 shots – those numbers make a mockery of that 10/11 which has an implied probability of 52 per cent of the bet landing. It’s closer to 70 per cent based on his recent data.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace, Tuesday 7.45pm

I’m staying clear of the outright market for this one and want to concentrate on Bournemouth cards up against Palace’s slippery duo in Eberechi Eze and Jordan Ayew. Both love drawing fouls.

Eze is working at a per 90 average of 2.10 fouls drawn this season whilst Ayew’s average of 3.37 per 90 makes him the most fouled player in the Premier League. Meanwhile, Eze has drawn 16 yellow cards off the opposition since the start of last season – the joint-eighth most of any Premier League player – whilst Ayew has drawn 15 yellows, the joint-12th most.

Bournemouth do like to break up play with niggly fouls – no team have made more fouls than them this season (385). So, I’d encourage backing Adam Smith (3/1 with Sky Bet), Lewis Cook (4/1) and Ryan Christie (5/1) to be carded in various Bet Builders in the hope of landing a juicy double-figure return.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2

Burnley vs Wolves, Tuesday 7.45pm

I don’t say this often – I want to back Burnley here. The 17/10 with Sky Bet for a home win looks a touch of value when you factor in how toothless Wolves are likely to be in the final third. Being without Pedro Neto, Hee-Chan Hwang and Matheus Cunha is a massive problem for Gary O’Neil to fix – and I’m not sure the solutions are there in his squad. Both Leon Chiwome and Nathan Fraser look very raw.

Meanwhile, Burnley are showing signs of life, especially going forward. They’ve scored six goals in their last three games and deserved more than they got in their 2-0 home defeat to Bournemouth, where they won the expected goals battle.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

West Ham vs Tottenham, Tuesday 8.15pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

I can’t be trusting West Ham. They looked home and hosed on Saturday, where we had tipped them at 3/1 for the win, but thanks to David Moyes and his dinosaur football tactics, they sank deeper and deeper before sinking without a trace.

Tottenham can take a game away from a team very quickly by scoring multiple goals in a short period and West Ham do have a habit of collapsing – like they did at Fulham, like they did at Arsenal. That may happen here if Spurs sense blood.

However, I think there’s a good chance of the Hammers scoring multiple goals, too. Lucas Paqueta, Mohammed Kudus, Jarrod Bowen and Michail Antonio are purring right now. Since Paqueta returned from injury, they’ve scored 18 goals in seven matches. They carry such a threat on the break and the Brazilian is the man that knits all their attacks together.

His price of 15/8 with Sky Bet to score or assist – which has landed in three of his last four games – is the method of attack in a game that could go goal-crazy.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-4

Arsenal vs Luton, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Luck is deserting Luton at the most important time of the season. Rob Edwards saw his squad decimated even further during the 2-1 defeat to Tottenham with three more injuries suffered, including one to key man Alfie Doughty.

He said: “We finished with every fit member of the senior playing staff, outfield players, on the pitch at the end. I think we’ve got probably 10 fit players at the moment.”

This is not ideal when you’re about to face Arsenal. Sky Bet have them as 22/1 shots to cause what would be the upset of the season.

I’m always looking for trend-enders to latch onto and Luton’s remarkable scoring run surely looks under threat here against this Arsenal defence. It’s now 18 Premier League games on the spin Luton have scored in since a 1-0 defeat to Manchester United in November. The Arsenal win to nil at 5/6 with Sky Bet looks a winner in waiting.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0

Brentford vs Brighton, Wednesday 7.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

It’s the football betting guru derby. Owners Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham both made their fortunes beating the betting markets using ahead-of-their-time models and have now built two of the best run football empires in the world.

I want to be with Benham’s boys here.

Brentford hit the woodwork four times, saw a goal disallowed for offside and had 31 attempts in their incredible game with Manchester United.

At a club like Brentford, who are so guided by the underlying numbers behind their performances, that game against United will have felt like a 7-0 win. I’m expecting confidence levels and general morale to be bouncing. I’m convinced they’re in a false position in 15th place. They are a team to follow in the coming weeks, especially at home.

A repeat of the same levels of intensity and attacking threat will trouble Brighton, who have won just once away from home in their last nine matches – that coming at Sheffield United. They’ve scored a total of just 19 goals in their last 14 Premier League games and five of those came in that win over the Blades, who had 10 men. They are the joint-fourth lowest scorers in the Premier League for that period, only Burnley, Sheffield United and Everton have scored fewer.

A home win at 7/5 with Sky Bet looks the best bet of the midweek card.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

Manchester City vs Aston Villa, Wednesday 8.15pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Is it the beginning of the end of Manchester City’s period of dominance of English football?

They are now very much second favourites in the Premier League title race at 15/8 behind Liverpool, who thrust themselves into favouritism on Sunday with a win over Brighton. They are the 5/4 jollies now.

City have only scored nine goals in their last seven Premier League games, an average which drops way below the 2.47 goals per game average they racked up across the league last season.

But I’m not overly worried.

The key performance metrics are holding up well when analysing them against the “normal” figures we’d expect from a Man City side managed by Pep Guardiola. The overall expected goals figure have City posting a return of 14.44 goals during that period, pointing to an under-performance and perhaps a period of variance going against them. This looks the worst possible time for Villa to be heading there as Guardiola’s teams notoriously respond in kind when suffering a negative result like they did against Arsenal.

How do we back City then at a reasonable price? We head for the half-time/full-time market, where Man City/Man City gets us to 4/5 with Sky Bet. In the 75 matches immediately after a game under Guardiola where City have lost, drew with a ‘non-big six side’ or drawn 0-0, they have scored 70 first half goals. A reaction is expected.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-0

Liverpool vs Sheffield United, Thursday 7.30pm

I’m a little confused at why Mohamed Salah is 2/5 with Sky Bet to score anytime and Luis Diaz is 11/8.

I’d have them around the same price on current form but obviously the bookmaker algorithms have spat out the rather chunky price on Diaz.

In a turgid betting heat where a one-sided game looks on the cards, the Diaz anytime price looks one to focus on.

The Colombian has netted seven times in his last 12 starts. In that timeframe he’s had, wait for it, 50 shots to an average of 4.1 per 90 minutes with 19 of those hitting the target.

The market is expecting Liverpool to score at least three goals here so it doesn’t really add up that Diaz is given a 42 per cent implied probability of scoring at least one of them – my figures have it closer to 55 per cent. It looks a cracking price.

SCORE PREDICTION: 5-0

Chelsea vs Manchester United, Thursday 8.15pm

Two very untrustworthy teams.

The performance from Manchester United at Brentford was one which will be hard to forget for everyone associated with the club. They played with the usual mis-shapen structure without the ball as per but they added a lack of work ethic to their output. I’m not sure there’s any way back for Erik ten Hag now – even the players played like it for large parts of that game.

The new hierarchy at United are very analytically aware and are recruiting people into positions of authority, like Dan Ashworth, who will want to make big decisions based on data analysis. And I think that leaves Ten Hag very vulnerable over the summer based on their woeful underlying metrics.

Chelsea should win this one. But attacking their corner count is a safer way of getting them in the book.

Brentford’s corner line was set at six or more on Saturday vs United – they hammered it, winning 14, which would have been bordering on a 100/1 shot. United’s nine-game average of corners conceded now stands at 8.6 per 90 minutes after that Brentford landslide.

I think the Chelsea total corners line is a play with seven or more available at 11/10 with Sky Bet. But we can be greedy. I wouldn’t put people off the bigger lines too with 10 or more ripe for a bet at 11/2.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1